Like any other market, the only thing to predict is based on the Business Cycle.

The cost of Money (interest rate), when compared to the Business Cycle, has been unusually low for a very long time. And, in the 90’s, we saw a rare mediocre Business Cycle; rates only got in the high 7’s on “A Paper” loans at its peak. In the 80’s, we had a striking Business Cycle where “A Paper” mortgage rates went as high as 12%— so the old folks tell me.

With rates on “A Paper” below 6.5% for several years now, don’t you think rates are going to climb and climb soon?

Mortgage rates at any point in time should reflect all the information known in the marketplace. What makes it seem like it can be predicted, is the stair step effect of certain economic indicators being released on a specific date. the market predicts the changes in those indicators, but at times the actual results of the measurements of the indicators suprises people and there may be a rather abrupt adjustment in a rate as a result.

So, its hard to predict a change in mortgage rates, but easy to explain after the change.